Why Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a threat to global food security

Donald Trump’s tariffs are set to increase prices for various goods for Americans. Imported cars, building materials, and some tech products will become more expensive, along with the food on American dinner tables. The United States currently relies on importing about 16% of its food supply, with a significant amount of fruits and vegetables coming from countries now facing tariffs. Mexico, for example, supplies over half of the fresh fruit and nearly 70% of the fresh vegetables consumed in the US. Additionally, the US depends on imported fertilizers from countries like Canada for its crops. As a result, grocery bills for American families, particularly for fresh produce, will rise, affecting food prices globally.

The impact of these tariffs could be severe, especially for developing economies that need stable international prices for affordable food imports. When there are disruptions in US markets, global staple prices, such as maize, wheat, and soybeans, are affected, leading to increased food prices worldwide. Research suggests that disturbances in international prices result in local food price hikes, especially in developing countries. For instance, a 7% increase in global maize prices could devastate households in regions like sub-Saharan Africa where many people live below the poverty line.

Tariffs on agricultural products like fertilizers may also raise global production costs, potentially reducing crop yields and worsening food insecurity. The increase in farming costs due to tariffs can weaken food production in developing countries already grappling with climate change and volatile markets. Countries highly reliant on food imports, like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia, are particularly vulnerable to local food price shocks caused by trade disputes.

To mitigate these effects, it is crucial to protect essential agricultural imports from punitive tariffs and stabilize prices to safeguard vulnerable economies. Investing in mechanized agriculture, supporting farmers, and enhancing regional trade can help improve the resilience of food systems in developing countries. The interconnected nature of the global food system means that decisions on tariffs can have far-reaching consequences on food prices worldwide. If left unchecked, tariffs could lead to a silent crisis marked by food insecurity in many regions.