US-Ukraine minerals deal looks better for Kyiv than expected – but Trump is an unpredictable partner

The United States and Ukraine have finally inked a much-anticipated agreement focused on Ukraine’s postwar rebuilding efforts, and initial assessments suggest the terms are more favorable for Kyiv than many had anticipated. Central to the “economic partnership agreement” is the utilization of Ukraine’s mineral resources, allowing Ukraine to access US investments and technology while the US will receive a portion of the profits. The finances will support Ukraine’s recovery once a peace deal is reached with Russia.

Several aspects of the deal are seen as advantageous for Ukraine. Notably, Ukraine will maintain ownership of its natural resources, with all profits reinvested in the country for a decade following the agreement’s enforcement. Additionally, the US may provide further military aid, pending a decision by the US president.

Earlier, negotiations were hindered by US President Donald Trump’s demand for compensation amounting to $350 billion for past US assistance to Ukraine, a figure contested by many analysts who estimate it to be closer to $120 billion. The finalized agreement excludes pre-existing aid and focuses on future US military support, although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the deal as compensation for prior funding and weaponry.

Questions remain regarding the details and potential discrepancies between the US and Ukraine, as the formal text has yet to be released. Trump’s unpredictable nature adds another layer of uncertainty to the agreement, which is part of a larger effort to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. While the deal indicates a long-term strategic alignment between the US and Ukraine, it lacks explicit security guarantees for Ukraine, with hopes that US investments will indirectly enhance the country’s security.

Despite the agreement’s emphasis on mineral wealth, doubts persist about its economic viability due to uncertainties surrounding the scale and profitability of Ukraine’s mineral deposits. The lack of thorough exploration and the risky nature of rare-earth mineral extraction raise concerns about the deal’s long-term impact on the peace process. While the agreement may signal waning patience from Trump towards Russia, it is unlikely to substantially alter the conflict’s fundamental dynamics.