The Trade War Is Already Hurting Oil Demand

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is impacting oil demand in the shipping and aviation industries, potentially affecting the U.S. trucking sector and diesel consumption next. Container traffic between the two countries is declining, leading to cancellations and weaker bookings for shipping companies and airlines. Major agencies like the IEA, OPEC, and EIA have lowered their 2025 oil demand growth forecasts by 150,000–400,000 bpd due to deteriorating trade and economic conditions. This decline in demand could worsen if the U.S. trucking business suffers, as analysts anticipate.