The one rule that decides virtually every NBA champion won’t be broken this year

The NBA playoffs this year have challenged traditional beliefs about success in the postseason. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers have defied the odds by overcoming double-digit comebacks, playing on the road, and inexperience to reach the NBA Finals. Despite historical low odds, the Pacers have excelled away from home, while the Thunder boast one of the youngest Finals rosters in the last 70 years.

While the landscape of the playoffs has seen significant changes, the importance of securing a top-four seed for a shot at the NBA title remains unchanged. Of the 78 championships in NBA history, 77 have been won by top-four seeds. Both the Thunder and the Pacers meet this criterion this season, with Oklahoma City finishing as the West’s top seed and Indiana as fourth.

However, recent history suggests that only top-three seeds have clinched the championship, with the last 29 champions falling within this range. If the Pacers were to win this season’s NBA title, they would become only the second fourth-seeded champion in league history and the first since 1981.

Although regular season length is often criticized, it has proven to be a reliable indicator of teams’ abilities to navigate the playoffs successfully. While there have been instances of lower-seeded teams making it to the Finals, once there, the team with a stronger regular-season performance usually prevails.

Teams are mindful of the correlation between regular-season success and playoff results, emphasizing the need to maintain consistency throughout the season. In contrast to other sports, the NBA’s postseason structure places a premium on regular-season performance, making it a significant factor in determining playoff success.

The NBA Finals are set to feature an intriguing matchup between the Thunder and the Pacers, with Indiana looking to continue their underdog run against the top-seeded Oklahoma City team. The playoffs have already showcased unexpected outcomes, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the NBA postseason.