New Trade Routes Drive India’s Eurasian Ambitions

Eurasianet is an independent news organization that offers coverage of news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing firsthand reporting and essential viewpoints.

India is increasing its support for Armenia through significant arms transactions and influencing tourism, which is reshaping the power dynamics in the South Caucasus region. Russia is worried about Armenia’s deepening connections with non-regional players like India, fearing a potential decline in its own influence in the area. Azerbaijan warns that involving external powers such as India could escalate tensions and threaten regional stability.

Armenia has struck arms deals with India worth around $1.5 billion over the last five years, purchasing items like anti-aircraft missiles, artillery systems, combat drones, and ammunition. At the same time, arms sales from Russia to Armenia have dwindled. Armenia has also started leaning towards the United States and European Union geopolitically, raising concerns in Moscow about its changing alliances.

India’s support for Armenia extends beyond arms sales, with New Delhi discouraging Indian tourists from visiting Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia’s adversaries in the region. Analysts suggest that India’s increasing interest in Armenia is linked to its rivalry with Pakistan and its ambition to counterbalance Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey’s partnership. Additionally, India sees Armenia as a strategic partner in developing trade routes outside of China’s Belt & Road initiative.

India’s growing involvement in the South Caucasus has raised concerns among regional players, including Russia and Azerbaijan, about the region turning into a battleground for external conflicts. The recent tensions between India and Pakistan have further heightened these apprehensions. The shift in regional dynamics due to India’s presence in the South Caucasus is being closely monitored by various stakeholders in the region.