GOP senators could throw Trump’s megabill entirely off the rails

House Republicans passed their version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on a party-line vote early Thursday, moving President Donald Trump’s agenda forward. The bill is now in the hands of Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Despite potential hurdles in the Senate, the budget reconciliation process allows for a simple majority vote without a filibuster. With 53 Senate seats under Republican control, Thune could pass the bill even with three GOP defections, relying on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote if needed.

However, Senate Republicans still need to work on the bill before final approval. Some lawmakers have conflicting demands, such as Sen. Josh Hawley’s opposition to cutting Medicaid benefits and Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s push to retain clean energy tax credits. Changes are expected to be made to address these concerns and others within the Republican caucus.

While the House bill includes provisions like a ban on states regulating artificial intelligence, the Senate’s “Byrd rule” requires non-budgetary items to be removed from the reconciliation bill. Senate committees are working to identify and resolve these issues. Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson aim to have the final bill on Trump’s desk by July 4, but reconciling differences between the House and Senate versions remains a challenge. Despite the urgency to pass the bill before the debt ceiling needs to be raised, uncertainties persist on whether Trump’s agenda will be realized in the next seven weeks.