Far-right AfD tops German poll for first time – just weeks after Friedrich Merz’s election win

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has topped a national poll for the first time, leading the Bild newspaper to headline: “AfD breaks the magic barrier”. The poll placed the AfD at 26% and the Christian democratic CDU/CSU at 25%. This shift in polling numbers, with the CDU/CSU down around 3% from the federal election and the AfD up about 5%, is significant and reflects the current state of Germany’s mainstream parties.

Following the recent election, the AfD now has a record 152 parliamentarians and is in a dispute over taking control of a meeting room currently held by the SPD. The party’s approach has been to criticize the political mainstream, which it labels as “cartel parties”. While the AfD has been vocal in its opposition, particularly towards CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the polling surge seems more attributed to the circumstances faced by Germany’s mainstream parties.

Merz’s decisions to relax Germany’s debt restrictions and increase defense spending have affected public opinion, with many feeling he was not transparent during the election campaign. Despite coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD progressing, there are concerns about the binding nature of their commitments, indicating potential challenges for future cooperation.

The poll results suggest that while Merz is likely to become chancellor leading a CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD, the coalition may face difficulties due to the age-old problem of “grand coalitions” potentially strengthening support for parties on both the left and right. The AfD’s rise in the polls poses a challenge for Merz, especially amidst global economic uncertainties and US tariffs, making governance more complex.

Although a majority of German voters still oppose the AfD joining the government, the party’s lead in opinion polls indicates a shifting political landscape that may require mainstream parties to adapt to changing dynamics.