Disarming Hezbollah is key to Lebanon’s recovery − but task is complicated by regional shifts, ceasefire violations

In late April and early May 2025, Israel conducted two airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The first attack on April 27 hit a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, while the second assault in southern Lebanon resulted in one fatality and eight injuries.

These recent attacks, occurring during a supposed truce between Israel and Hezbollah for the past five months, highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. They also complicate the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah, a powerful paramilitary group despite Israeli actions targeting its senior members. Disarming Hezbollah is a key component of a United Nations resolution aimed at bringing lasting peace to Lebanon, a resolution that has been in place for almost two decades.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated following Hezbollah’s support for Hamas in 2023, leading to a full-scale war in 2024. Israel’s sixth invasion of Lebanon in October 2024 resulted in significant casualties and economic damage. A ceasefire brokered by the United States and France in November 2024 was based on a UN resolution calling for the disarmament of militias like Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.

Despite some progress in dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure, the group’s leader remains adamant about retaining weapons to ensure Lebanon’s safety against Israel. The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, has vowed to disarm Hezbollah and implement the UN resolution fully, but faces challenges from both domestic pressures and international demands for Hezbollah’s disarmament.

The situation in Lebanon is further complicated by developments in Syria, with the fall of President Assad adding uncertainty to the region. The future of Lebanon and Hezbollah hinges on various factors, including regional dynamics involving countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could impact Lebanon significantly, while Iran’s diplomatic initiatives may influence Hezbollah’s role in the region.