Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

Bougainville, an autonomous group of islands currently under Papua New Guinea’s administration, is determined to establish itself as the world’s newest country. To facilitate this process, it is providing foreign investors with the opportunity to access a dormant copper and gold mine. The Panguna mine, previously owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, caused displacement and significant environmental harm during its operation from 1972 to 1989. This led to a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and lasting traumas and divisions.

There is a belief among industry experts that the site still holds 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold, attracting foreign interest, including from China. Australia considers Bougainville strategically important for its “inner security arc,” as the main island is approximately 1,500 kilometers away from Queensland’s Port Douglas. Consequently, the potential increase of China’s presence in Bougainville raises concerns regarding shifting alliances and Beijing’s ability to exert greater influence in the region.

Bougainville, consisting of two main islands with a population of around 300,000, has a history of unwanted interference from external parties, including missionaries, plantation owners, and colonial administrations. The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further strained relations between Australia and Bougainville, leading to violent resistance and eventually a civil war that lasted until 1998. After the conflict, Australia played a role in brokering the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001, but tensions still persist as Bougainvilleans seek independence.

In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum, signaling their determination to achieve self-governance by 2027. However, there are challenges to overcome, such as addressing environmental and social issues stemming from the mine’s past operations. While the reopening of the mine could bring economic benefits, it also raises concerns about potential conflicts among landowners and the need for proper governance.

The Bougainville government aims to attract foreign investors to support its path to independence, with China showing a keen interest in the region. As Bougainville navigates its future, it is essential for Australia to strengthen its diplomatic and economic ties with the island group to ensure regional stability.