After another call with Putin, it looks like Trump has abandoned efforts to mediate peace in Ukraine

Following a two-hour phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 19, US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Russia and Ukraine will commence negotiations promptly to achieve a ceasefire and bring an end to the conflict. Trump emphasized that the terms for peace will be determined through discussions between the two parties.
With the Vatican expressing interest in hosting the talks and European leaders being informed, it appears that the US has effectively stepped back from its stalled mediation efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
There had always been the possibility of Trump disengaging from the conflict, especially after previous assertions that he could resolve it within 24 hours. This likelihood increased after face-to-face negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the first in over three years, concluded without a ceasefire agreement on May 16.
Trump’s subsequent announcement of a phone call with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts signaled a strategic shift. This was reinforced when Vice-President J.D. Vance indicated that the US might cease its shuttle diplomacy shortly before the Trump-Putin call.
The outcome of the discussions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between Trump and Putin, was not surprising given Russia’s reluctance to make concessions. Russia continues to insist on Ukraine accepting its demands for territorial concessions and future neutrality.
Putin’s approach to negotiations remains cautious. Following the call with Trump, he mentioned Russia’s readiness to collaborate with Ukraine on a potential peace agreement, including a temporary ceasefire if agreements are reached.
The lack of urgency on Russia’s part to end the conflict was evident when Russia conducted its largest drone attack on Ukraine the day before the Trump-Putin call. The ongoing fighting, coupled with Putin’s focus on broader US-Russia relations, suggests that a ceasefire in Ukraine may not be a top priority for the Russian leader.
Trump’s positive assessment of his conversation with Putin and the potential for enhanced trade relations indicate a shift in US-Russia relations. However, Trump’s decision to prioritize dialogue with Russia over mediating the Ukrainian conflict has raised concerns in Kyiv and European capitals about potential abandonment by the US.
Despite the importance of a reset with Russia, Trump’s strategy may face challenges as both Putin and Zelensky remain steadfast in their positions. While Putin benefits from China’s support in the rivalry with the US, Zelensky can rely on European backing to counter Russian aggression.
In the evolving global landscape, a US-Russia reset seems unlikely to succeed, especially if it involves sacrificing alliances with Ukraine and Europe. Trump’s decision to step back from mediating the conflict may have broken the deadlock, but achieving a reset with Russia could come at a significant cost.