Trump may have chosen the wrong scapegoat this time

Donald Trump recently targeted the Federalist Society, a prominent conservative advocacy group, and its co-founder Leonard Leo, who was a key adviser on judicial nominations during Trump’s first term. Trump criticized Leo as a “sleazebag” on Truth Social and blamed the Federalist Society for providing him with bad advice on various judicial nominations.

Trump’s post was triggered by a ruling from a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade that challenged his authority to impose sweeping tariffs. Trump often looks for scapegoats when things go wrong, and this time, his political allies, including the Federalist Society and Leo, faced his backlash.

Despite feeling betrayed by conservatives for not helping him secure the White House, Trump may have chosen the wrong targets in Leo and the Federalist Society. Both have strong ties to conservative Supreme Court members and were pivotal in Trump’s judicial nominations in his first term.

Trump’s relationship with Leo became strained after the 2020 election denialism fiasco. Leo played a significant role in the appointments of Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, as well as Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. Leo’s influence extended beyond nominations, with former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway describing him as a “den mother” to the justices.

Although legal conservatives expected Leo to remain influential in Trump’s second term, the recent ruling challenging Trump’s tariffs may have altered that perception. The New Civil Liberties Alliance, a group funded by Leo, challenged Trump’s tariff policy, indicating a shift in their relationship.

Trump’s attacks on Leo and the Federalist Society may hinder his ability to fill vacant judgeships smoothly in his second term. The president’s changing stance towards Leo does not negate the latter’s significant influence on the federal judiciary and the conservative legal movement.