Mega Poll Shows Nigel Farage’s Reform Party on Pace to Win Next Election

According to a recent poll, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party would secure the most seats in parliament if an election were held today, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. The survey, conducted by the More in Common think-tank and based on the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) model, projects Reform UK to win 180 seats, a substantial increase from last year’s election. This surge in support comes as the party gains ground against the traditional Labour and Conservative parties.

Despite Labour and the Conservatives tying with Reform in overall support at 24 percent each, the survey predicts that both establishment parties would fall behind Reform in terms of parliamentary seats. The projections indicate a decline of 246 seats for Labour and a 44-seat increase for the Tories. Reform UK’s focus on traditionally Labour areas, known as the “Red Wall,” has resonated with voters who feel neglected by the left-wing party’s shift towards progressive urban elites.

The survey reveals that Reform is set to take 153 seats from Labour-held constituencies, with nine cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats to Reform candidates. More in Common highlights the fragmented electorate, suggesting no party would secure a majority in the House of Commons based on these projections. While Reform’s rise in popularity is evident, the party still has a way to go to secure a majority.

The recent survey by More in Common indicates a growing momentum for Reform UK, with the potential to become the largest party in Parliament. This outlook, which was unimaginable just a year ago, reflects the changing political landscape in the UK. As Reform prepares for the upcoming local council elections, the survey results could serve as a morale boost for the party.

Luke Tryl, the UK Director at More in Common, acknowledges the challenges of predicting election outcomes but recognizes Reform UK as the standout winners in the current political scenario. He points out the disillusionment among voters towards Labour and the Government’s performance, emphasizing Reform’s potential to capitalize on this sentiment.